Wednesday, 6 May 2009

BAC to Return to Market...Interfrastically

I’m struggling a bit for inspiration today…as is the market by the looks of things. While volumes are high today, running around 140% of 20 day avg, direction is absent. BAC needs $34bn so they say, Citi less and JPM nothing. No one seems to care too much. It’s trading down c12% pre market but given the run it’s had, that’s hardly something to get too excited about. The market feels somewhat paralysed at the moment, fraught with fear of listening to any of the bad news and going against the tape, especially as we have a number of events coming up, namely ECB meeting and the NFPs. The economic data continues to ameliorate, or at least the gamma of the data does, and this has been the focus of the rampant market. Risk appetite has been returning, cable back up above 1.50 again today with the better PMI. I wonder though if things are at last too extended. The market retreated very slightly about 30 mins ago and cable very quickly took a straight line drop. Small admittedly but perhaps people are a bit more willing to hit the eject button on their risk positions. There was chat of a decent SPX call seller yesterday. From people I’ve spoken to in the options world, the talk is that directional players have been selling their long call positions. BMW couldn’t give any guidance today, Agrium cutting their Q2 outlook and the cement companies and homebuilders have provided cautionary commentary. And another thing…the number of secondary placings. Most evenings in the last month or so, when I check my blackberry, there’s a couple of messages about offerings in the US. Companies don’t sell their stock when they think it’s cheap! Given what’s coming up over the next couple of days it would be foolhardy to call a top now but I’d be watching with a keen eye and looking to dip a toe in the water on the short side over the next few days.

Anyway, back to the title. I was watching Blackadder’s Most Cunning Moments last night (who says G.O.L.D is not a worthwhile channel?) and I thought the Dr. Johnson sketch was a neat analogy for the banks…making claims that they’ve done it, everything is fine, only for someone to come along and all to easily point out that is far from the case. I’ve been chuckling about this all morning so maybe I’m just looking for a way to fit the clip in. Hearty confibularities to JPM on not needing any more capital! Enjoy!

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