YAWNARAMA

This market can’t make up its mind. In fact I’m not sure it even has a mind at the moment. It’s sitting on the fence and just when you think it’s going to move one way or another; it does a swift about turn. Yesterday the BAC & C news took us lower but the consumer confidence number buoyed us in the afternoon. I’m always pretty sceptical of confidence surveys, the sample is usually small (in the Consumer Confidence Survey, it is 5,000 households. That’s 10 times the size of the U of Mich confidence survey sample…but still small) and who really pays attention to these forms when you’re filling them out? I get that such things can be self perpetuating and if consumer confidence is high, they may spend more etc, but it’s a pretty fickle number and next month if the markets take a lurch down, I’m sure people will be less upbeat. Anyway, enough rambling, the market paid attention to the number yesterday, up we went and that’s what counts.

With Q1 GDP later today we may get some movement but I’m not holding my breath. -4.7% is the consensus estimate. Will anything happen either way? I’m not sure the momentum is there to push much higher and if we get a surprise on the downside, and it’s due to continued inventory destocking and not weaker sales, I imagine the market will look through that and it will be a bit of a nothing done. Ditto the FOMC meeting tonight, the ammo there is spent.

Bloomberg is talking about at least 6 banks having to raise more capital…and despite it being the most read story on Bloomberg, the market is apathetic in its response. Biggest print of the day to be the lunch order...