In keeping with Monday’s “Risk On, Risk Off” piece (still only risk on), I found this guide, which may help navigate these tricky markets. It comes from the most cynical of the Cynics, Zerohedge and makes for funny if slightly (but only slightly) facetious reading…
The New Wall Street Reality
· GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
· 125K+ jobs lost from GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
· unemployment @ 9% = BETTER THAN EXPECTED
· unemployment @ 10% = DOW SOARS
· unemployment @ 11% = GREEN SHOOT RALLY
· unemployment @ 12% = ALREADY FACTORED IN
· unemployment = 35% = DOW DROPS 100 POINTS
· housing price =1% = RECESSION ENDING
· housing collapses = GREEN SHOOT
· Housing falls 20% = STABILIZATION
· Government spends 1 trillion of OUR dollars = STIMULUS
· North Korea fires nuke = RALLY
· Israel bombs Iran = 30 MINUTE END OF DAY RALLY
· world explodes = ASIA RALLIES
· PMI crashes = HUGE RALLY
· No jobs are created = RECESSION ALMOST OVER
· U.S. debt overwhelming = TOO BUSY RALLYING TO CARE
· Consumer stops spending = RETAIL RALLY
· Banks are insolvent = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
· American auto industry BK = GOOD THING
· Banks pass scam stress tests = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY
· Banks "only need 75 billion = OUT OF THE WOODS
· Banks pass a real stress test = NEVER WOULD HAPPEN
· Banks pay back tarp = LATE DAY SURGE
· Banks can't pay back TARP = EARLY MORNING SURGE
· 12% mortgage delinquency = GOOD FOR STOCKS
· Hundreds of thousands of mortgages underwater = HOUSING BOTTOMED
· Dollar rises = RALLY
· Dollar crashes = RALLY
· Inflation = BULL MARKET
· Deflation = BULL MARKET CONTINUES
· REFLATION = MASSIVE SHORT COVERING RALLY
· Gold rises = STOCKS RALLY
· Gold falls STOCKS RALLY BIG
· Banks' fake earnings = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
· CRE stabilizing= 1000 POINT RALLY
· CRE CRASHING = STOCKS SHAKE IT OFF TO RALLY
· CONSUMER INSOVENT = CONSUMER IS SPENDING
· OIL @ 50 = BULL RALLY
· OIL @ 60 = GREEN SHOOT
· OIL @ 100 = IMPORTANT RECOVERY SIGN
· OIL @ 20 = TAX BREAK
And the one we should all interpret correctly:
· NO ONE IS BUYING STOCKS = BILLIONS ON THE SIDELINES
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