When Inspiration for a Title Deserts Me...

...I have to do something like this.

Another week draws to a close. More earnings beats and of late some macro misses. It’s all been leading up to 13.30 today when the Non Farms are released. The ADP, while it came in slightly worse on Wednesday, did show a marked improvement on the previous month. As a result, we’ve seen economists revise their forecasts down for the number of job losses today and I’ve heard whisper numbers around the -250k level.

Ahead of this, things are relatively muted in the market place. Volumes are tracking at c85% and yet again the cricket is providing most of the excitement. Sterling continues to struggle post yesterdays QE extension and today’s mixed PPI has done little to aid it.

The market began to move sharply lower yesterday afternoon although I’m not really sure what catalyzed that. There was the speculation that Whitney was recommending taking profits in the banks but the market had started moving before this. Also, if she was going to make a call like that, surely she would be afforded the time on CNBC et al to put forth her views…just as she was when calling the buy on GS. Right?? The sell off stabilised somewhat although Asia in general was weaker and this has followed on to Europe today. Asia was in general weaker, China down for the third day in a row. Korea however steadfastly refuses to go down. To be fair the data have been better of late, GDP printing higher at 2.3% a couple of weeks ago, business surveys ticking up, exports better than expected and industrial production far better. Still, the Kospi 200 is up 17 in the last 19 sessions! And the two down days have been to the tune of 15 and 45bps. Now that is parabolic! Or in normal speak, geez that’s a big move!

Another asset exhibiting outstanding resilience is the NZD. The resources are selling off today but the Kiwi is maintaining its recent flight (for recent, read 5 months, which is pretty impressive for a supposedly flightless bird). The Aussie is off despite RBA comments about potentially raising rates and CAD was falling this morn and has lurched further post a very poor unemployment number, -44.5k vs expectations of -15k. The Kiwi however remains firm and is up about 40bps. Ok it’s a consensus short, but for a reason! And with the Land of the Long White Cloud’s unemployment situation not getting any better, clocking in at 6% earlier in the week vs estimates of 5.7%, one wonders if or when, the Kiwi and it’s 35% appreciation, comes back to earth.

The market has had quite a few moves to the downside to deal with this week. Certainly it has proved pretty resilient, with stubbornness akin to that of the Black Night . Just when you think it’s about to roll over, “I’m not quite dead yet” it bleats and up we go again. Today looks more interesting on this front with the market taking a dose of reality from RBS and Hester’s less than sanguine comments and of course the imminent main event, the NFPs. While the market seems to be prepared for a good number, I’m not sure it’s fully priced for it and if we do come in with a -250k, it would be hard to see us going any other direction than upward. That said, in line to low and I would think we fade so it’s going to have to be a big beat to move us up. We’ll find out inside the hour. Eager trigger fingers await.